A Plebeian

Economic Populism

This morning on ABC’s 774 Melbourne the Opposition Leader Tony Abbott outlined that a Coalition government would repel the carbon tax/ETS whilst simultaneously maintaining  the tripling of the tax free threshold, tax cuts for those earning under 80k, pension increases and much of the assistance packages. 774’s Jon Faine rightly pointed out to the Opposition Leader that the economy isn’t an magic pudding. Eliminating the revenue from the carbon tax is one thing, but to then promise that virtually all the relatively popular expenditure would remain is surely blatant economic populism, detached from any sense of reality or responsibility.

Abbott is no dullard, the man is a Rhodes Scholar who studied economics, he can surely see how absurd his position is, yet he continues to make these claims over and over again, these claims aren’t just limited to the carbon tax. He is free to enter into these lubriciously populist and and economically irresponsible positions because any counter message from the Government is simply ignored due to their inability to communicate any form of cohesive policy. Labor’s toxic relationship with much of the electorate allows the opposition to make these wild claims with little fear of reproach. Whilst the media is occupied with weekly poll results, the Government’s policy failings or covering stunts in Whyalla. Abbott is playing a dangerous brand of politics, promising the world to voters now may feel great but when it comes time to govern and tough decisions need to be made, expect people to feel disenchanted, even lied to. Juliar may give way to Fony Tony.

The Coalition has positioned itself as the party of economic responsibility and conservatism that would never have gone on a spending spree during the GFC years. Yet their policies are completely out of sync with their own perceived ideology. Promising to axe the ETS without rolling back the compensation is near economic vandalism. The Coalition has admitted to having a $50 billion shortfall in their budget, to be offset by dramatic, almost unbelievable cuts to the federal bureaucracy and services. Joe Hockey has stated that a Coalition government would bring an end to Australia’s welfare state, yet they remain opposed to means testing private health insurance. Abbott decries any tax raises, yet is perfectly happy to apply a ‘levy’ to companies to pay for his generous paid parental leave scheme, complimented with a nanny rebate. The party of free markets has proposed a government direct action plan to spend billions of dollars to reduce CO2 emissions. The Coalition’s policies and ideology appear to be miles apart, with little consistency or coherence.

There has been very little pressure on the Coalition to outline their policies, this will continue through to the next election, it may even take a second place in the campaign. Labor would surely try to capitalise on Abbott’s disapprovable ratings and his highly negatove relatioship with the electorate. When it comes time to govern they will have to determine what they really stand for and accept that they cant make everyone happy in a democracy. If they decide to take the economically responsible path they may feel a backlash from the electorate when their back pocket is targeted. If they continue down this path of demagoguery and populism, economic rationalism will have a lesser presence in their ideological thinking. The drive to remain in power lends political parties to go down the populist path, rather than engaging in tough reform or future building. This is one of the dangers to any democratic system.

Moral Impasse

The stalemate in Australia’s federal politics over the issue of processing asylum seekers offshore must surely make every citizen feel sick and disillusioned, regardless of whether your ideology lies to the left or right.

Today’s evolving story is that yet another overloaded boat has capsized north of Christmas Island. 150 Afghan asylum seekers, all of which are believed to be women and children are now dealing with a horrifically fatal scenario. If the events of today and the past week fail to reach some sort of compromise or stopgap then or political system has truly sunk to the very bottom of morality and leadership.

The failings of Labor’s policy have become glaringly obvious, its inability to protect the safety and the lives of the most vulnerable and disenfranchised people need to be addressed. Just as the unbelievably harsh policies of the Pacific Solution needed to be wound back. Finding the middle ground has never been harder. On one hand the aim of deterring people from risking their lives on failing boats and being exploited by people smugglers and on the other is treating asylum seekers humanely and upholding their right to seek asylum. The Labor government is without doubt responsible for the current situation, in trying to create a more humane process for asylum seekers they have lured many to their deaths.

Distributing blame wont help solve the situation. The Coalition’s early rhetoric of Labor working out a deal for offshore processing with the Greens has rightly been dismissed by the media. They tried to link disagreement over policy with a lack of confidence in the government, this has rightfully been pushed to the fringes of the right’s rhetoric. The two major parties both support offshore processing and are obliged to come to some sort of solution, even if merely a stopgap. Labor has proposed the linked policy of Malaysia and Naru. Many were opposed to the Malaysia Solution because they felt  it reduced human and individual lives to a trade able commodity. Punishing asylum and seekers and denying them their right to seek refuge here and instead damning them to Malaysia without an iron clad commitment to their welfare. Many still consider these to be valid criticisms of that Solution, but compared to what awaits them at sea a the moment the MS and Naru may be the lesser of two evils. 

The Coalition has been been unbelievably unwillingly to cooperate. Whether out of political opportunism or because of a genuine belief that the MS wouldn’t work and that the Pacific Solution has been proven successful. Crikey’s Bernard Keane yesterday said that the Coalitions stance to was the closest thing to being evil that he has ever seen. Many would agree with this whilst others tend to believe/hope that their stance is based on the perceived success of the Howard policies and the failings of the MS. However their insistence that TPV’s be included in any agreement shows just how unwilling they are to compromise. Labor wouldn’t be likely to agree to their reintroduction and for good reason. TPV’s were a complete and utter failure, after their introduction the number of IMA increased as did the number of women and children making the voyage.

The Coalitions unwillingness to compromise on any aspect of their policy has already exposed fractures from within the party as individual members have become vocal in their demands for an end to the impasse. Externally their position will surely polarise many of the independents/centrists in the community. Make no mistake the mess we find ourselves in today is of the Labor government’s doing and it is their responsibility to see to its rectification. But the Coalition itself has a responsibility as a duly elected group to come to the table, develop a policy and represent a voice to their constituents. Their cannot be to many conservatives happy with the status quo. Holding out whilst people  are drowning in an attempt to teach Labor a lesson isn’t virtuous and it doesn’t make Abbott appear any more a statesman. 

Coalition Conundrum

If the current two party preferred polling continues (Coaltion 53% - Labor 47%) into 2013, the two term Labor Government will certainly fall in a fit of self destruction. Leaving a Tony Abbott led Coalition to move from the rancor of do nothing politics to governing. The two tier economy is beginning to show evident signs of fracturing. Manufacturing jobs seem to be shed each week, China is experiencing inflation and its growth of GDP is set to fall. Budget surpluses are going to be harder to come by. Revenues are falling and the chorus of industries pleading for assistance grows louder.

With what we know today of the Coalitions policies we can make certain assertions. The Coalition forcefully reject the carbon tax, on the premise that it was introduced on the basis of a lie. That it will raise the cost of living for Australians through increased electricity, fuel, manufacturing costs…..and on and on. It would led to an explosion of dodgy green schemes that will inflate the existing markets at exorbitant costs. Abbott has promised to repel it, though this would require another election through a double dissolution. He has promised to keep the tax cuts and pension raises derived from the carbon tax, he wants all the benefits with none of the costs. Abbott would also keep the superannuation increases from the mining tax. These promises would almost certainly have to change once in government. Balancing the budget with no carbon tax, and no mining tax would be a feat of near impossible proportions. The Coalition is already battling with a multi billion dollar black hole in their budget. Yet backing away from repealing either tax would be as bad a political back flip as Labor’s carbon tax. Add all of this on top of Abbott’s promise to repeal means testing of the private health insurance rebate and his generous paid parental leave scheme. The Coalition will certainly repel the carbon tax, but if ends become harder to met the prospect of having to stall the implementation of some of their beloved programs may be met with reconsideration on the mining tax. The Coalition could keep the MRRT in some form, this may be met with ire from the press gallery and Parliament but wouldn’t be detrimental to their standing with the public.

Currently he is placed in a precarious position with his opposition to company tax cuts derived from the mining tax, being pushed into step with the Greens. Naturally he would reject anything derived from a policy he rejects, but this leaves the party of pro business and lower taxes refusing to give a tax cuts to companies he says are struggling. However this argument of being forced into a position of rejection falls flat as the Coalition have promised to keep the changes to superannuation. Abbott just doesn’t want to provide a tax cut on the terms Labor and would prefer to hold out and take the tax cut pledge to the election. The Coalition will soon be feeling a larger headache at hand with their paid parental leave scheme that isn’t receiving support from the public or even from within the Coalitions own ranks. This is a poorly disguised attempt to woo female voters who largely view Tony Abbott in a negative light. Never mind that the Coalition will pay for this with an increase to company taxes. Abbott is promising both a company tax cut and rise. 

Finally on the carbon tax, the Government led by a former member of the Socialist party is implementing a program largely based on free market system. Were after the first couple of years the fixed carbon price at $23 will be freely traded on a domestic and international exchange. Whilst we have the Coalition deriding the Government for going it alone on the world stage on reducing CO2 emissions, yet promising to met the 5% reduction target. They promise to met this target through government led programs such as soil abatement, crop rotations and tree planting. This plan with exponential costs is derided by economists and environmentalists. We have the Coalition the party of free markets and enterprise choosing to combat climate change through government. The Coalition are facing an internal battle with their ideology, whilst they are bent on denying the current government any success today, they may well be digging a hole for themselves tomorrow. They face an impending conundrum.

A Divided GOP

So here we are on the Ides of March and the GOP Primary race is raging on with little prospect of a nominee before August 27^th in Tampa, Florida. The four remaining candidates; Romney, Santorum, Gingrich and Paul continue this carnivorous rampage that leaves President Obama unscathed and each candidate appears to be suffering from the death of a thousand cuts. Neither candidate seems capable of delivering a fatal blow, ensuring that this conservative bloodletting will continue. Conservatives will say that this is democracy in action, allowing each candidate to be vetted by the electorate. However after 20 debates and 30 primaries and caucuses, it seems that the American public have a pretty solid idea of who these four men are. This protracted fight has now turned to a point where the fight has become internal.  

The party is split along three lines; social conservatives, libertarians and moderate conservatives. Romney thought he’d have it all wrapped up by now (so did most of the media) he is now forced to take his attention off the general election, look in the rear view mirror, turn and head back to the conservative base. To put it simply, he is going to move to the right. He shouldn’t, because he will outflanked by Santorum and Gingrich each time and every flip flop from now will just be seen as pandering. But that won’t stop him because he wants to win. Doing this is going to hurt him come general election time, the independents are soft at the moment but policies such as his stance on immigration could turn them away.

Any talk of a Santorum/Gingrich ticket is just that – talk. Gingrich will never play second fiddle to any one. He loves taking things to the brink, just like his days as Speaker. Gingrich is going to the convention, nothing could stop him bare a major scandal, but even that may not deter him. Santorum will remain the conservatives choice, social conservatives will continue to rally around him. He will continue to be the culture warrior, the family man, fighting for family, faith and country.  Santorum will make Romney sweat from now until the convention, with sleepless nights before every primary. Paul the only nominee who actually believes what he says and has believed it for a long time. Undoubtedly kooky and unconventional in his views, this standard bearer of libertarians has struck a cord with the youth of the nation. Paul is hanging in there for a speaking role at the convention, which he undoubtedly deserves.

Republicans deride President Obama for his stimulus package, foreign policy, health care, the debt, class warfare and his so called war on religion. Yet for what they view as the failings of a weak President, they have so far been unable to provide a resounding response in the personification of one person. The GOP are still dealing with their failures of the past and are currently failing to determine the direction of their future. They are so far “a house divided”. 

Kony - A Review

Enough time has now passed since Kony 2012 first launched itself onto our screens, papers and lives to sit back and take check. The immediate overwhelming and sensational launch of Joseph Kony was met with all-consuming fanfare, moral outrage and a heightened international conscience. Individuals and the world’s media looked to that shadowy continent that we had for so long ignored, igniting the youth of the Information Age.

This was then met with inevitable questions; who are Invisible Children? Where do their fundraising efforts go to? Who are their backers and shouldn’t the minimalism of facts in their project be defined in terms that govern the real world?

The argument was presented in such simplistic terms, capture Joseph Kony. To suggest that Kony is the source of Uganda’s problems misrepresents the nation’s history. Kony is not the disease that brought about this to Uganda, he is the symptom. He is the result of corruption, war, ethnic rivalries, submissive religion, starvation, poor and none existent education……. and so on and on it goes. To define the source of the problem in one man is to be misleading. If reports are to be believed then Joseph Kony has long left Uganda and is hiding and surviving in the jungles of neighbouring states with a few hundred supporters. Kony is the scar of a torn nation, removing him would be the equivalent of having cosmetic surgery, we would all look better, we would all definitely feel better too. Giving each other a pat on the back for clicking a button or wearing a wrist band. The scar would be gone but the disease that caused this pain would still exist, festering under the surface unresolved. Whilst we all look for our next hit of internet activism ecstasy. The film reverberated in our colonial style minds, the Western world riding in as the white knight to save the people of Uganda from their retched condition. There was no mention of the killings of the Ugandan government, the atrocities that they too have committed in tearing their nation apart. There can be no denying that Christianity has helped tear Africa apart and subject the people to unthinkable conditions. The missionaries who brought their books of wisdom to educate and teach morals to the people of African only brought disease, the destruction of culture and the loss of self-determination. There can be no greater blight to the world then the HIV/AIDS epidemic of Africa. If a Christian organisation like Invisible Children wants to help the people of Africa, then send them condoms and expel the myth that it is condoms that gives them AIDS, the lie continued by their Christian brethren.

Don’t read me wrong here, Joseph Kony should be captured and brought to justice. No crime, especially of such magnitude, malicious and perversion should go unpunished. Justice delayed is justice denied. It would bring a sense of closure to the people of Uganda and may make them feel safer in bed at night. I can’t help but feel that we are always too late onto the scene to effect any real change.

Where is the campaign for Assad 2012? Here we have a man actively murdering his own people in the streets of Homs. Civilians are walking the streets of covered blood, dodging shells and praying that they are not taken away next. Where is the outcry for the invisible children of Syria?  Children who are being tortured and returned home in body bags. Where are the Assad bracelets? Where was the Gaddafi bracelet or the Saddam Hussein bracelet? It always seems as though the cries of protest are heard after the damage is done. Undoubtedly some supporters of Kony 2012 opposed the Libyan intervention, the toppling of Hussein, the invasion of Afghanistan or the intervention in Bosnia. Where would these tyrants and fanatics be today if they had been listened to? Either still in power or living out the remainder of their worthless lives in hiding, Kony style.

Let me take leave and say that though Kony 2012 is simplistic and misleading, it has brought the issue to the forefront of many of our minds. They have us discussing and debating what is a resoundingly complex issue. Whether you have donated money directly to Invisible Children or to another organisation you have undoubtedly made a positive impact. To those who have experienced an awakening to their international conscience do not be simply satisfied with Kony 2012, go further.